| Background Current research on the association between depression and the risk of stroke and all-cause mortality has primarily focused on elderly populations or traditional high-risk groups with chronic comorbidities. In contrast, the long-term impact of depressive symptoms on stroke and mortality among young and middle-aged adults has received limited attention, leaving a substantial gap in the evidence base. Objective To investigate the association between depressive symptoms and the risks of stroke and all-cause mortality among young and middle-aged adults, thereby expanding the risk evidence for this demographic and providing an epidemiological basis for early identification of high-risk individuals and the development of targeted intervention strategies. Methods Based on data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database (2009–2018), we included 14,947 participants aged 18–64 years.Logistic regression and restricted cubic spline (RCS) models were employed to examine the association between depressive symptoms and stroke. Cox proportional hazards regression,RCS models,and Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves were used to clarify the relationship between depressive symptoms and all-cause mortality risk.To verify the robustness of our main findings,sensitivity analyses were stratified by sex,hypertension,diabetes,hyperlipidemia, body mass index (BMI),and age. Results Logistic regression analysis revealed that,compared with the non-depressed group,the mild depression group exhibited a 53.50% increased risk of stroke (OR=1.535, 95% CI: 1.147~2.053), while the moderate-to-severe depression group showed the highest risk with a 132.90% increase (OR=2.329, 95% CI: 1.733~3.129). RCS analysis indicated a approximately linear dose-response relationship between PHQ-9 scores and stroke risk (Pfor non-linearity=0.089),with stroke risk increasing as PHQ-9 scores rose.Cox regression analysis demonstrated that,relative to the non-depressed group, the mild depression group had a 48.80% increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR=1.488, 95% CI: 1.164~1.902), and the moderate-to-severe depression group had a 70.60% increased risk (HR=1.706, 95% CI: 1.310~2.221).RCS analysis showed a linear dose-response relationship between PHQ-9 scores and all-cause mortality risk (Pfor non-linearity=0.440). K-M curves also indicated that all-cause mortality risk progressively increased with worsening depression severity (P<0.05). Sensitivity analyses confirmed that the associations between depression and risks of stroke and all-cause mortality were not modified by sex, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, BMI, or age,indicating robust conclusions. Conclusion In young and middle-aged adults,both mild depression and moderate-to-severe depression were associated with increased risks of stroke and all-cause mortality, with the moderate-to-severe depression group showing more pronounced risk elevations. A positive dose-response relationship was observed between depressive symptoms and these risks. |